Lucky-7 re-entry

fredy · December 9, 2024, 4:33am

Lucky-7 is getting closer to re-entry (~7-10 days), let’s try to track it.

fredy · December 15, 2024, 7:46pm

Updated TLE based on latest from space-track.org and latest Network observations:

LUCKY-7
1 44406U          24350.75000000  .00000000  00000-0  12152-2 0    00
2 44406  97.6742   4.8683 0004423 135.9269 356.4699 16.28959761    08

lucky_350_v1.dat (1.4 KB)
sites.txt (9.8 KB)

fredy · December 15, 2024, 8:21pm

A small correction in accuracy of the above TLE:

LUCKY-7
1 44406U          24350.80000000  .00000000  00000-0  12152-2 0    06
2 44406  97.6742   4.7580 0004124 142.0985 283.4138 16.29438656    08

fredy · December 15, 2024, 11:35pm

One more small correction:

LUCKY-7
1 44406U          24350.90000000  .00000000  00000-0  12523-2 0    09
2 44406  97.6742   5.1278 0004398 126.9794 164.9403 16.30595202    00

sites.txt (9.8 KB)
lucky_350_v5.dat (560 Bytes)

fredy · December 16, 2024, 6:53am

One more TLE update:

LUCKY-7
1 44406U          24351.20000000  .00000000  00000-0  11925-2 0    08
2 44406  97.6742   5.5563 0004675 105.1528 148.8410 16.35168689    02

lucky_351_v1.dat (1.2 KB)
sites.txt (9.8 KB)

dl7ndr · December 16, 2024, 7:27am

2024-12-16 07:13 UTC @178 km, max. 15° elevation

fredy · December 16, 2024, 7:48am

A small fix for the previous TLE:

LUCKY-7
1 44406U          24351.30000000  .00000000  00000-0  12019-2 0    04
2 44406  97.6742   5.8650 0003380 111.1037  11.4104 16.36559843    08

sites.txt (9.8 KB)
lucky_351_v3.dat (840 Bytes)

fredy · December 16, 2024, 8:55am

One more TLE update based on the latest observations:

LUCKY-7
1 44406U          24351.37000000  .00000000  00000-0  12019-2 0    01
2 44406  97.6742   5.6487 0004553 111.0718  63.7924 16.38491124    01

lucky_351_v5.dat (1.2 KB)
sites.txt (9.8 KB)

fredy · December 16, 2024, 10:27am

Updated TLE based on observations from pass over Australia:

LUCKY-7
1 44406U          24351.40000000  .00000000  00000-0  13117-2 0    05
2 44406  97.6742   5.6964 0004234 105.5607 246.3355 16.40471519    08

sites.txt (9.8 KB)
lucky_351_v7.dat (805 Bytes)

fredy · December 16, 2024, 11:13am

One more adjustment:

LUCKY-7
1 44406U          24351.41000000  .00000000  00000-0  13117-2 0    06
2 44406  97.6742   5.7189 0004011 114.3819 296.3643 16.39048804    04

lucky_351_v10.dat (1.1 KB)
sites.txt (9.8 KB)

fredy · December 16, 2024, 2:51pm

One more update:

LUCKY-7
1 44406U          24351.41000000  .00000000  00000-0  13117-2 0    06
2 44406  97.6742   5.5935 0004011 114.3819 295.8988 16.39767842    07

sites.txt (9.8 KB)
lucky_351_v14.dat (525 Bytes)

fredy · December 16, 2024, 3:50pm

Probably one of the last TLE updates:

LUCKY-7
1 44406U          24351.63000000  .00000000  00000-0  71786-3 0    07
2 44406  97.6684   5.9443 0006976 212.9930  57.8116 16.46049087    02

fredy · December 16, 2024, 4:07pm

One adjustment on the previous TLE:

LUCKY-7
1 44406U          24351.65000000  .00000000  00000-0  53972-3 0    06
2 44406  97.6684   6.3401 0003565 250.3039 139.1797 16.52426135    07

lucky_351_v22.dat (1015 Bytes)
sites.txt (9.8 KB)

fredy · December 16, 2024, 5:32pm

Not perfect much but it should work:

LUCKY-7
1 44406U          24351.70000000  .00000000  00000-0  26970-3 0    00
2 44406  97.6684   6.4170 0005601 225.7302 100.8259 16.53633299    03

sites.txt (9.8 KB)
lucky_351_v23.dat (1.8 KB)

fredy · December 16, 2024, 5:48pm

Probably the last one:

LUCKY-7
1 44406U          24351.72000000  .00000000  00000-0  27008-3 0    05
2 44406  97.6684   6.9505 0006699 227.3317 218.3730 16.56977421    02

lucky_351_v25.dat (1.9 KB)
sites.txt (9.8 KB)

fredy · December 16, 2024, 7:24pm

It looks like that Lucky-7 has now been re-entered.

Last reception:
SatNOGS Network - Observation 10775057 by Station 2937 - WH6GVF UHF

Last data:
SatNOGS Network - Observation 10775131 by Station 1888 - SA2KNG Experimental

cn64 · December 17, 2024, 7:05am

Acording to some sorces i found its still in orbit but may not be operational n2yo still has a low altitude but still tracking a python program to predict reentry says it has a tiny bit left to live. === Step 1: Collecting Tracking Data ===
Collecting CubeSat data every 10 seconds…
Time: 2024-12-17T07:05:17Z | Altitude: 141.76 km | Velocity: 7824.79 m/s
Time: 2024-12-17T07:06:17Z | Altitude: 142.64 km | Velocity: 7824.00 m/s
Time: 2024-12-17T07:07:17Z | Altitude: 143.36 km | Velocity: 7823.28 m/s
Time: 2024-12-17T07:08:17Z | Altitude: 143.90 km | Velocity: 7822.64 m/s
Time: 2024-12-17T07:09:17Z | Altitude: 144.26 km | Velocity: 7822.08 m/s
Time: 2024-12-17T07:10:17Z | Altitude: 144.44 km | Velocity: 7821.60 m/s
Time: 2024-12-17T07:11:17Z | Altitude: 144.44 km | Velocity: 7821.20 m/s
Time: 2024-12-17T07:12:17Z | Altitude: 144.28 km | Velocity: 7820.88 m/s
Time: 2024-12-17T07:13:17Z | Altitude: 143.96 km | Velocity: 7820.64 m/s
Time: 2024-12-17T07:14:17Z | Altitude: 143.50 km | Velocity: 7820.47 m/s
Time: 2024-12-17T07:15:17Z | Altitude: 142.91 km | Velocity: 7820.37 m/s
Time: 2024-12-17T07:16:17Z | Altitude: 142.21 km | Velocity: 7820.33 m/s
Time: 2024-12-17T07:17:17Z | Altitude: 141.43 km | Velocity: 7820.35 m/s
Time: 2024-12-17T07:18:17Z | Altitude: 140.58 km | Velocity: 7820.40 m/s
Time: 2024-12-17T07:19:17Z | Altitude: 139.69 km | Velocity: 7820.50 m/s

Data Collection Complete:
Average Altitude: 142.82 km ± 1560.99 m
Average Velocity: 7821.45 m/s ± 1.31 m/s

=== Step 2: Predicting Reentry ===
Predicted reentry in approximately 71.61 minutes.

[Program finished]

fredy · December 17, 2024, 8:34pm

Hi @cn64 and welcome in the Community!

A quick comment on your post to have in mind based on my experience with tracking re-entries.

The re-entry calculations and satellite tracking maps depend on the available TLE sets. Given that a TLE set (the orbit actually) during the re-entry changes fast and sometimes when published is already deprecated, there is a chance to show that a satellite is in orbit when it is not.

if you are interested I can write some more details and give a couple of examples. Also there is this BEESAT-9 re-entry analysis that can give you an idea on the accuracy of the orbital data as it compares some orbital parameters calculated from space-track TLEs, SatNOGS Community TLEs and GNSS data from the satellite.

HS318 · December 17, 2024, 9:15pm

This is the last observation I had scheduled for 0633 this morning 24.12.17 UTC
https://network.satnogs.org/observations/10775321/

I did receive a signal which I believe is lucky-7 based on my other observations.

fredy · December 17, 2024, 10:18pm

Unfortunately this doesn’t seem to be the satellite, these are some points that makes me doubt:

The peaks of the signal are too far from each other, below in the image in the same scale, at the top is the signal from your observation and at the bottom signal from observation 10775267:

In the image above, we can also notice that we miss from the signal you observed the rest of the peaks, which should be visible given the power of the received signal.
Finally the observation was scheduled with older TLE set which wasn’t accurate at the observation time, in this case (re-entry one) we expect the satellite signal to show up earlier than what TLE describe. So, I would expect the signal to be at the beginning (at the bottom) of the observation and not at the end.

Based on the above, I’m 99.9% sure that the signal doesn’t belong to lucky-7, and given its power it is probably something terrestrial.